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With the North Carolina and Indiana primaries out of the way, there are only six primaries left. Those six offer a total of 217 Democratic delegates, that's it, that's all that remain. Obama needs 184.5 delegates to clinch and Clinton needs 344. It doesn't seem likely that the "super delegate" contribution could overcome that difference. To me it appears mathematically impossible or at least highly unlikely that Clinton can win. Obama can barely succeed based on math. It appears the only thing Clinton can do is force the Dem selection to the floor of the Democratic Convention. If that occurs, there is a slim chance that someone other than these two coulld be nominated, delegates are free to vote their conscience after the first ballot. This protracted and seemingly futile battle is allowing McCain to campaign toward November while the Dems are mired in a primary. Doesn't seem like smart politics to me, and I don't understand why Billary stubbornly fights on. Sometimes defeat has to be accepted.
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It is not mathematically possible for Hillary to win a majority of voted ad pledged delegates in advance of the convention.
It is mathematically possible, but not likely that Obama will win the majority needed either.
The Super Delegates can, at this point, put EITHER of them over top - though, Super Delegate votes are not ever ever locked in - unlike some states which require their delegates to vote as elected.
The one person who CAN put Hillary over the top is John Edwards. If She cuts a deal with Edwards, his 102 delegates could come very close tying Clinton with Obama - Edwards is rumored to hate Obama with a passion - note that Edwards did not campaign with EITHER Candidate in NC. His delegates could easily put Obama over the top or catch Hillary up in a 'stunning transformation.' [You know the hyperbole with which the press operates.]
EVERYBODY, from Edwards to the Super Delegates is looking for a deal. Edwards obviously has no love lost for the Clintons.
Beyond the Edwards and Supers, lie the Michigan and Florida delegations. If they find a way to seat those delegates - Hillary takes Florida and they split Michigan, Hillary STILL cannot get enough, and neither can Obama. This could easily come down to a floor fight. If Edwards fails to pick a side, he loses influence. I think he is looking to be a factor at the convention, thinking the fight will continue right to the Convention.
I will make one comment, the only thing the Clintons have not tried, is, well, lets say the Secret Service would do well to be especially cautious these next few weeks.
As for the politics of it? By the time Labor Day rolls around on Sept 1, no one is gonna remember any of this. You watch TGS - memories of politics are shorter than memories of the tooth ache after the Dentist fixes it.
The general election should prove to be interesting.
Joe,
I don't see Edwards backing Clinton. The only enticement I can see is the VP spot on the ticket. Edwards has said he doesn't want it, and he probably has good cause. The VP is typically a non-job and in this case it would be worse. If Clinton wins Bill will be her primary advisor and the VP will really be shoved into the background. Edwards would be better off being Obama's VP, but I don't see that happening either. Obama doesn't seem the type to sell that position and, like you said, they don't get along well. But, it is politics and anything can happen.
I hope you're wrong about the "Secret Service" suggestion. We don't need another Ambassador Hotel incident. I agree though that it is possible and it could come from anywhere. Some people can't seem to accept change, and on the Dem side this year either choice will be a radical departure from Presidential tradition.
I think the Dems will beat the heck out of each other and create such a division in the party to the point that McCain waltzes in. Doesn't matter who will be Obama or Clinton's VP. McCain's sitting back with a big grin and watching...
I have to agree with Joe. At the convention, one of the two will emerge as the acclaimed candidate, the other will not only be gracious in defeat, but will make a stirring speech in support of the candidate, and by October no one will remember any of the backbiting during the primaries. There will be a united Democratic party (did you ever think you would see those words in the same sentence?), focused on slinging dirt back at John McCain and other Republican candidates.
She is owed about $10mil which she lent her campaign. . . $5M in March and 6.4M reported today , or maybe its a total of $6.4M, the article was unclear. lets assume it was $6.4M total.
Give her campaign $7m - if Obama and the DNC guarantee them a return on their investment, she'll quit. At this point its about the money - and the Clintons know all about money. . .
who wants her out? Let em fight.
don't add up to ten but do equal a dog fight at the democratic convention. Hillarys only chance and has been her only chance has been to win a few states and keep barack from getting enough deligates. Its gonna be a dog fight at the end as hillary will not quit, would you? To be fair to hillary this race may have been over if Florida and Michigan were added. Watch out for slick willie...............
If it were me and my supporters were weak enough to force me to have to loan 11.5 million of my own money to the campaign I would quit. Think about it, she obviously has more faith in herself than her own supporters. Heck, if I had 11.5 million I'd retire and let the second shift do it!
it ain't about the money...it's a tetesterone thing....
But don't they have a shot for that?